Politics is largely about perceptions.
Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson now has to prove he is a credible alternative when it comes to sound economic management following the relatively positive reaction to Wayne Swan’s first Labor budget in 13 years.
How well he does this will also have an impact upon his party colleagues who are people driven by public opinion, and since the election the polls have not been kind to Dr Nelson and the Coalition.
The embattled leader now has to show he is strong and decisive.
His commitment to block the proposed tax on alcopops has put him well and truly on a collision course with the government.
Dr Nelson argues that binge drinking, especially amongst women, has in fact declined and that the tax on alcopops is more about delivering the government more cash for its coffers rather than trying to stem the problem.
But he is going to find it hard to cut through and successfully mount this argument.
He may be right, but there is a concern within the community that drinking by the nation’s young is out of control.
This has no doubt been fuelled by television images which depict out of control young people swilling mixer drinks whenever the question of the tax arises.
Dr Nelson is in danger of being caught between a rock and a hard place.
The government will paint him as a person who is playing at cheap politics by appealing to the hip pocket nerve instead of supporting attempts to reduce binge drinking.
This has been shown by Labor so far arguing that Dr Nelson appears to be one of the few that thinks there is not a binge drinking problem.
It has made little of the fact that if the tax is blocked then it will put a hole in the budget surplus and its economic strategy.
Emotion will usually start as favourite over cold hard facts, so the government will continue to push the danger of binge drinking, while Dr Nelson will try to get some traction as he mixes both fact and the need to address drinking problems.
While his stand against the alcopops tax is something tangible that the Opposition can do, his call for a five cent a litre cut in the fuel excise tax has its own element of playing politics.
Petrol prices are causing stress, but while the Opposition can use its numbers in the Senate to block the mixer drink levy; there is nothing it can do when it comes to the fuel excise.
But it gives a good headline, and it will be the government that will have to wear the flak as people nod in agreement to the cheaper fuel idea.
Some party colleagues had defined the budget as the time to reassess the direction of the Liberal Party.
Read that as whether Dr Nelson has any chance of holding on to the leadership.
For the time being Dr Nelson appears to have bought some time on the leadership issue – but realistically if you were a bookie, you would be framing long odds on whether he will be Opposition leader right through to the next election.
