The Coalition's best chance of winning the last federal election was to switch to Peter Costello in 2006, according to previously undisclosed research commissioned by ALP headquarters.
The secret ALP polling of swinging voters found that while voters took issue with Mr Costello's perceived personality traits, others found him more "in touch" and "reasonable" than John Howard, The Weekend Australian reports.
The research warned that if the then treasurer was given the freedom to establish his own profile as leader, he could make up ground quickly on Labor, neutralising the generational-change strategy that Kevin Rudd would use against Mr Howard at the election last year.
Details of the research, which contradicts other polls that found Mr Costello was an unpopular alternative to Mr Howard, are disclosed in Inside Kevin 07, a new book by Christine Jackman, a senior writer with The Weekend Australian.
Liberal Party sources said yesterday the Coalition's own research was similar to the ALP findings, but Liberal strategists did not want them canvassed among MPs for fear of destabilising Mr Howard.
"It was known by both sides, but neither had the motivation to say it," one Liberal source said.
The findings have the potential to renew speculation that Mr Costello is the best leadership option for the Liberal Party against Mr Rudd at the next election.
Mr Costello, who refused to comment yesterday, is completing a book, which is due out in October. He is expected to make his political intentions clear at that time.
The ALP polling on Mr Costello was conducted in October 2006, just months after he publicly fell out with Mr Howard over the alleged deal to hand over the Liberal leadership to the treasurer.
ALP national secretary Tim Gartrell asked focus group researcher Tony Mitchelmore to test swinging voters' reaction to Mr Costello.
In his report, Peter Costello - Opportunity or Threat?, Mr Mitchelmore wrote, "On the surface there are real personality issues", with some participants using words such as weasel, snide, smug and creep to describe Mr Costello.
But other voters disagreed, and were more favourably disposed to the then treasurer.
"Below the surface there are acknowledged strengths," Mr Mitchelmore wrote.
Core among them was Mr Costello's "strong economic credibility".
"With free rein to establish his profile as leader, rather than as merely an adjunct to Howard, Costello could make ground quickly, and even enjoy 'an enhanced honeymoon' if voters began to see him as a leader who offered the economic stability of the Howard years, without some of the Prime Minister's perceived 1950s stuffiness," the book quotes the research as saying.
