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Monday, 13 October 2008

Eurozone recession fears loom

25/07/2008 9:25:00 AM.  | 

The 15-nation eurozone economy is teetering on the brink of recession, economists have warned in the wake of a string of weak data.

Facing record oil prices and a strong euro, business activity in the eurozone fell in July to the lowest level since just after the September 11, 2001 terror attacks, according to a widely watched survey.

"Economic growth in the eurozone is coming almost to a halt," said Bank of America economist Holger Schmieding.

"This is the clear message from the dismal set of leading indicators published today."

The eurozone purchasing managers index (PMI), compiled by data and research group Markit, slid more sharply than expected in July to 47.8 points from 49.3 in June, according to an initial estimate.

Separate business confidence surveys from eurozone economic heavyweights Germany, France and Italy added to fears that Europe will not escape recession as it struggles with record inflation, tight lending conditions and weakening export demand.

German business sentiment fell to near a three-year low point in July, with a key index posting the sharpest drop since the September 11 attacks, according to the Munich-based economic research institute Ifo.

Meanwhile France's INSEE business climate index fell in July for the sixth month running to hit the lowest level since May 2005 while Italian business confidence dropped to a near-seven year low, according to research centre ISAE.

In Spain, the government slashed its economic growth forecast for this year to 1.6 per cent from 2.3 per cent as a housing boom that underpinned strong growth in the country for years turns to bust.

Outside of the eurozone, the news was equally dim with retail sales in Britain tumbling in June to record the biggest monthly drop for 22 years.

Despite a buoyant first quarter, economists said the chances are increasingly high that the eurozone economy shrank in the second quarter and that the third is getting off to an equally weak start.

"The available eurozone data already suggest that there is a chance that GDP (gross domestic product) contracted in the second quarter," said Ben May at Capital Economics.

"Unless we see a recovery in (business activity indicators) over the next couple of months there might even be another fall in the third quarter," he added.

If economic activity does indeed pull back in the second and third quarters, that would mark the first time the bloc has experienced a recession - defined as two successive quarters of contraction - since the euro was launched in 1999.

Despite the fast deteriorating economic outlook, the European Central Bank lifted interest rates this month to keep a lid on inflation, which hit a record 4.0 per cent in June.

"Will the recent news stop the ECB from raising? We are not sure," said UBS economist Stephane Deo. "We still expect inflation at 4.3 per cent in August: way too high for the ECB.

"We think it is a close call but the odds for another hike have obviously declined today," he added.

Likewise, Bank of America's Schmieding said: "The data strengthen those at the ECB who had gone along only grudgingly with the July rate hike and now want to prevent any extra rate increase.

"With just a bit of bad luck, any further monetary tightening could possibly push the eurozone into a brief recession, in our view," he added.

COMMENTS

Friday, 25 July 2008

RUDD has a lot to answer for now! First he ruined Australia now He's gone and ruined Europe,China next.How could he have done all this in 8 Months.Incredible.LOL.

Posted by: Paul Keating, Upper Tweed

Friday, 25 July 2008

...slowly (VERY SLOWLY!) Tweed Keating wakes up!

Posted by: Geoff Bolton, Lane Cove

Friday, 25 July 2008

Paul Keating, Upper Tweed - He’s got his hands full ruining Australia-his International adventures are all just his delusions of grandeur.

Posted by: Desmond Harris, Beacon Hill

 

Friday, 25 July 2008

People who have half a brain know why a recession is coming, most of Europe and the UK are governed by leftists Paul. Hence the "rock star" welcome for Obama in Berlin. Recession has been on the cards for Europe for quite a while now and the UK is already there I believe. As usual we will follow blindly, rather than watching and learning. I wonder if you watched this evening news Paul, electicity tipped to soar, among other necessities ordinary aussies paying for our kyoto stand. Wise country

Posted by: susan lowe, gippsland

Friday, 25 July 2008

Anybody else see something funny how the Govt. cant suppl y costings for the ETS, yet can tell us electricity will rise and by an decent amount estimated already? Hang on tight, the great ripp off we have to have is on the way! Ps. what makes them left or right and who makes it so?Are they right or do we just accept it as fact?

Posted by: Nick Again, Maryborough

 

Saturday, 26 July 2008

Susan Lowe, After living in the UK for over a year now I can certainly tell you that Gordon Brown is NOT left wing ESPECIALLY when it comes to economic policy. In fact David Cameron, the UK opposition leader has a less right wing economic policy than Gordon Brown. Make sure you choose the right people to bash before you execute your left wing bash philosophy.

Posted by: Adrian Peace, London

 

Saturday, 26 July 2008

People get so confused with the left wing v right wing stuff. On the right is unrestrained capitalism, on the left is comunism, the centre is obviously in the middle. The US democrats & republics are both right wing parties, the republicans are like the british conservatives, and our far right liberals. The democrats are also right wing, but more in the middle, same with british labour, and like the left wing liberals. Our labour party is left wing & more akin to Mainland european labour.

Posted by: Concerned Liberal, Minto

 

Saturday, 26 July 2008

Then i gues I'm in trouble...again=(. I reckon our government should be trying to RE-Purchase ll they've spent yrs selling off. I thnk we (govt) should have many bussinesses inplace to try to help our economy and employment status. At present we dont have much but an ageing population and royalties. I think here in Ausralia our politixs are very much the same in majority of areas and have lost their own way. The Government should try to flex its muscles abit more too, esp. in case of banks.

Posted by: Nick Again, Maryborough

Saturday, 26 July 2008

Nick, remember the deregulation of the banks by Keating? We are supposed to be benefiting by the increased competetion.

Posted by: Rob Banks, Canberra

 

Saturday, 26 July 2008

Adrian he may well be right of the the majority of his party, just as Tony Blair was. The topic however was recession, and since you have just lived there I am sure you can enlighten us about the cost of living in the UK I to have been there and I know their recession started before ours."The MPC is facing its most difficult challenge yet. For the time being at least, the nice decade is behind us." I "bash" right and left if their policies are insane and ETS is. My point the UK are in recession

Posted by: susan lowe, gippsland

 
 

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