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Wednesday, 03 December 2008

RBA's massive rate cut 'won't be enough'

7/10/2008 8:17:00 PM.  | Anil Lambert-Patel & AAP

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It is feared today's massive interest rate cut still won't be the silver bullet needed to kick start Australia's ailing property market.

The Reserve Bank has slashed the official cash rate by 100 basis points, or one per cent, the biggest drop in 16 years.

The four big banks are now passing on most of the savings, cutting their standard variable home loans by 0.8 per cent.

Aaron Gadiel from the Urban Task Force says that still won't encourage enough investors to build especially in New South Wales.

"There's not enough money to go around and lenders aren't renewing their loans to developers."

"If that isn't addressed by local and state governments there will be a massive loss in development projects pending and that could leave a real hole in housing and job numbers."

However, Australian stocks did rise more than one per cent following the RBA’s surprising move.

At 1453 AEDT the benchmark S&P/ASX200 was up 73.9 points, or 1.63 per cent at 4614.3 and the broader All Ordinaries was up 46.6 points, or 1.03 per cent, to 4591.3.

The move by the central bank was larger than the 50 basis point fall economists had predicted.

The preceding 16 moves (three cuts, 12 hikes, then another cut last month) were all 25 basis points, so the RBA's move is a clear signal that it believes the balance of risks for the economy have shifted dramatically.

The most recent phase of the global financial crisis has been the obvious catalyst.

"The recent deterioration in prospects for global growth, together with much more difficult market conditions even for creditworthy borrowers, now present the risk that demand and output could be significantly weaker than earlier expected," the RBA said in a statement issued by its governor, Glenn Stevens.

The RBA stuck with its view that the September quarter figures will show the annual inflation rate is around five per cent, from 4.5 per cent over the year to June.

However the rising risk of unexpectedly weak economic growth has tilted the balance of probabilities to the downside.

"Should that occur, inflation would most likely fall faster than earlier forecast," the RBA said.

Looking ahead, the RBA said that given rising funding costs it had decided that "on this occasion, an unusually large movement in the cash rate was appropriate in order to bring about a significant reduction in costs to borrowers".

However it warned borrowers not to expect more of the same.

"The Board does not, however, regard that movement as establishing a pattern for future decisions," the RBA said.

The futures market has responded by pricing in no further change in the cash rate next month.

For December the market has fully factored in a move to 5.75 per cent and about a 50-50 chance of a bigger move to 5.50 per cent.

The Reserve Bank's full statement

At its meeting today, the board decided to lower the cash rate by 100 basis points to 6.0 per cent, effective 8 October 2008.

Conditions in international financial markets took a significant turn for the worse in September.

Large-scale financial failures in several major countries were accompanied by serious dislocation in interbank markets and heightened instability in other markets, including sharp falls in share prices.
Official actions in a number of countries have been aimed at restoring stability, by adding to short-term liquidity and laying a foundation for longer-term recovery in the health of balance sheets.

Nonetheless, financing is likely to be difficult around the world for some time ahead. This is also affecting Australia, albeit by less than in many other countries, given the relative strength of the local banking system.

Economic activity in the major countries is also weakening, and evidence is accumulating of a significant moderation in growth in Australia's trading partners in Asia.

The expansionary effects of the recent surge in Australia's terms of trade are still coming through, but some decline in the terms of trade now looks likely over the coming year, with many commodity prices having declined from their peaks. This, combined with the likelihood of below-trend growth in the global economy, suggests that global inflation will moderate in 2009.

Thus far, the overall path of economic activity in Australia appears to have been close to what the board had expected, with the needed moderation in demand occurring.

The next CPI is likely to show an increase of around 5 per cent over the four quarters to September, but the Bank remains of the view that inflation will start to decline in 2009.

The recent deterioration in prospects for global growth, together with much more difficult market conditions even for creditworthy borrowers, now present the risk that demand and output could be significantly weaker than earlier expected. Should that occur, inflation would most likely fall faster than earlier forecast.

Given that background, the board judged that a material change to the balance of risks surrounding the outlook had occurred, requiring a significantly less restrictive stance of monetary policy. The board also took careful note of movements in funding costs in wholesale markets.

Having weighed these considerations, the board decided that, on this occasion, an unusually large movement in the cash rate was appropriate in order to bring about a significant reduction in costs to borrowers.

The board does not, however, regard that movement as establishing a pattern for future decisions.

The board will continue to assess prospects for demand and inflation over the period ahead, and set monetary policy as needed to bring inflation back to the two to three per cent target over time.

COMMENTS

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Sounds to me like the RBA (encouraged by Rudd & Swan) slowed things down too soon too quickly? This is almost panic by the RBA? We're in more trouble than Rudd is letting on.

Posted by: Geoff Bolton, Lane Cove

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Bolts your a goose. If I could not "encourage" the RB (not to raise rates) what makes you think Rudd and Swan can?

Posted by: J Howard, Formerly of Kirribilli

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

(Silly Name) Howard - read Stalin's comment below. It further re-inforces the position that I proposed and you fail to comprehend.

Posted by: Geoff Bolton, Lane Cove

 

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Stevens needs to resign right now. If he has stuffed things up so badly that this correction is 1% then his incompentance is there for all to see.

Posted by: Pete 2, Brisbane

 

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

The RBA under-estimated the affects of having the new PM and treasurer trash-talk our economy into the dirt following their grand victory at the end of last year. The impact of that kind of talk from our fearless leaders takes some time to filter through. Now it is clear in the economic data so the RBA are scrambling to undo the damage that was done. For the record, Turnbull called it right from the very get-go, as by the way did Hewson from the side-lines and many others in the business world.

Posted by: Jo Stalin, Sydney

 

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

This is great! KRUDD finally did something he promised during the election... bring downward pressure on interest rates!

Posted by: Dennis Cole, Newtown

 

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

With Rudd and Swan at the helm,it would come as no surprise that we are in deeper trouble than these two amateurs are painting.Time will tell with our economy.

Posted by: Bill Bridge, Tura Beach

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Oh Dear, you make your post, blaming everything on Kevin Rudd, and then Little Johnie Howard comes out and says "Australia is well placed to weather the storm of the current global financial crisis". Must ruin your entire day.

Posted by: Mick S, Central Coast

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Micks - we're "well placed" NOT because of the trashing from Rudd & Swan, but because of the legacy lefty by Howard & Costello. You can't have it both ways..IF the economy was a mess when Rudd came in then he couldn't have turned it around in 9 months, therefore the most likely scenario (for anyone with a brain) was that it was in OK condition when Rudd inherited it. Interestingly Rudd scorns Turnbull for saying anything bad about the economy, but Rudd did that daily during the election!!

Posted by: Geoff Bolton, Lane Cove

 

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

At last with a Labor Government interest rates are coming down ! Better than Howard did during his last term! Thankfully we got rid of those idiots :-)

Posted by: Traci Fawcett, Melbourne

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Fawcett - if you believe what you have written then you are an imbecile. Rates are coming down because the economy (under Rudd) is grinding dangerously to a stop.

Posted by: Gareth Benson, Blacktown

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Traci Fawcett-Interest rates are coming down for two reasons 1) Rudd and his band of incompetents have stuffed up the economy. 2) They should never have gone up as high as they did-especially when the Reserve Bank knew that the World financial crisis was under way more than twelve months ago. But no worries Traci-enjoy your brief moments of glory-because the drastic cut of a full percentage point, even though inflation remains high, is a signal from a panicked Reserve Bank that we are in for very tough economic times under the stewardship of Rudd.

Posted by: Desmond Harris, Beacon Hill

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

hahahahaha hahahhahahaha haahahahhahahaha.......to think you really believe what your saying Traci Fawcett..hahahahahahahaahhahaha

Posted by: D s, syd

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Silly labor supporters who don't understand economics. Bringing down interest rate after screwing up the economy - even a dog (or pig) can do that! What's so good about this?

Posted by: W O, Turramurra

 

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Anyone who is naive enough to believe that what is happening to the economy has anything to do with what we are doing. John Howard set us up as a nation almost entirely reliant on our mineral weath, so its no surprise that mining stocks in australian companies have fallen so much. But obviously the rest of the decline in our economy has to do with events in europe, america, and even china.

Posted by: William Bennett, Capalaba

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

William Bennett, long BEFORE the mining boom begun Australia was already posting record surpluses AFTER paying of a massive government debt. BEFORE the mining boom, the world financial community was in turmoil because of the Asian Meltdown. (remember that?) There was one economy in the Asia Pacific region that defied gravity then - Australia, led by the Howard government.

Posted by: A Narchy, The Hills

 

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Continued: Jo, im sick of your uneducated rantings on about the labor government. As i recall, all politicians no matter what side of politics they are on were very careful not to talk down the economy. I believe what may have actually had the impact was the rather large GLOBAL economic slow down, combined with the interest rate rises from the past few years. If anything, like Geoff said at the top, Kevin and Co have been doing everything they can to talk up the economy

Posted by: William Bennett, Capalaba

Wednesday, 08 October 2008

William Bennet. There is no denying by any truthfull person, that upon getting elected, Rudd and Swann felt that it was politically expedient to set up their own economic credentials by throwing as much manure as possible on their predecessors. They did that by making our economy out to be some kind of disaster left by the Libs. This political propaganda cost this country dearly as consumer and business confidence plumetted. To do that during the global credit crisis was gasoline on fire. Get it

Posted by: Jo Stalin, Sydney

 

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

It seems Mr Glenn Stevens is seriously rattled. So he ought to be. While this reduction is well overdue for KRudds "struggling families" it is a clear reflection of the incompetence of the Reserve Bank (indeed on a more direct personal level, the pathetic so called Governor, Glenn Stevens' incapacity to manage - why? - because he is scared of his shadow) in chopping and changing interest rates, especially in the recent past to justify their pathetic existence. Krudd and Swan are just as bad.

Posted by: Tony Obrian, Woy Woy

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Tony, well should he be rattled. He overvalued the cost of money in trying to control domestic consumption in 2007 simply because he didn't know any other way - no new ideas. Now he is undervaluing the cost of money in trying to arrest a rapidly declining economy, despite high levels of inflation, again because he has no other idea(s).

Posted by: A Narchy, The Hills

 

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

" The RBA under-estimated the affects of having the new PM and treasurer trash-talk our economy into the dirt following their grand victory at the end of last year." NO No No!, nothing like that folks but more like the global markets are going to freefall and you had better get out to your bush blocks and do a bit of clearing for the vege plots and take some rabbit traps with you.

Posted by: Neville Simms, Sydney

 

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

I think Labor miscalculated in timing their grand return to government. Rudd & Swan really didn't believe Howard's forecast of economic hard times did he? We'll see how long this government lasts when the jobless figures start to climb.

Posted by: A Narchy, The Hills

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Obvious the Labor voters didnt know when they were well off.Low unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates, and they voted in the Rudd. Now the RBA has paniced lets see how well off the same labor voters are in 6 months. Howard warned them , but because they hated him they tossed out the best decade they have seen in years ,and the last, for many more years.Watch them whine when their living standards begin to fall and they have to hang on by the seat of their pants as we did under Keating.

Posted by: susan lawe, gippsland

 

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

will.B., the mineral 'Boom" kept us fairly stable I'd say. To blame Howard for doing it? mate, our Previous Gov's and Howard, have allowed the firesale of Aus. Industry, what else do we have? On the rate cuts, i hope we come out Ok as a nation, however i fear the worst is to come and lots will feel real Hardship...Nev.simms, mate, 2/3rds of the crowd in Sydney would die of fright if they went into the bush...No big lights to keep the nasties at bay..LOL..city slickers.. :))

Posted by: Nick Again, Maryborough

 

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

With Swan egging it on, the reserve had set interest too high. It was a political statement intended to make the previous government look bad. Instead we see that Rudd and co are nothing more than economic vandals.

Posted by: Happy Fun Ball, Carramar/Sydney

Tuesday, 07 October 2008

Wonder how long Rudd can keep conning his followers ? He and Swan will be remembered as economic vandals before this is finished..Glenn Stevens their partner in crime...but watch the followers find some way to blame Howard/Costello. Wonder how many bricks between the eyes they will need before they wake up to the spin this Govt has/is feeding them.

Posted by: susan lawe, gippsland

 
 

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