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Friday, 05 December 2008

Jobless rate jumps to 4.3% nationwide

9/10/2008 11:51:06 AM.  | 

The federal government has welcomed the latest employment figures which show a small jump in the jobless rate.

Unemployment rose to 4.3 per cent in September from 4.1 per cent in August.

"In the context of the global financial difficulties, this is a good result and the government welcomes these figures," Deputy Prime Minister and Employment Minister Julia Gillard said.

The government had predicted "some softening" in the employment situation this financial year.

"The budget estimate made it clear that at

budget time we expected an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.75 per cent towards the end of the financial year," Ms Gillard said.

Economists say the rise is expected to continue over the coming months as the economy slows.

The result was in line with the median market forecast.

Total employment rose by 2,200, underpinned by a 17,000 increase in part-time employment.

However, the number of full-time jobs fell by 15,400.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia senior economist

Michael Workman said the slowing economy would cause the unemployment rate to continue rising over coming months.

"The unemployment rate is likely to keep drifting up," Mr Workman said.

"We've got a view that it will be up closer to five per cent in the first quarter of next year.

"We're going to have much weaker external

growth and the external sector has been a big driver of Australia's outcomes over the last

couple of years, so you've got to expect weaker

growth here and it's underway.

"There's been a marked shift towards weaker outcomes in the employment figures over the last

eight months."

The ABS said the 95 per cent confidence interval - which represents a 95 per cent chance that the true value of the estimate lies within that interval - for total employment was a decline of 58,400 and an increase of 62,800.

Australia's biggest telecommunications provider, Telstra announced last month it would cut 800 jobs in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, saying new systems meant the company needed fewer staff.

Car interior maker Teson Trims also announced it would close, with 120 jobs to go at its two Victorian locations.

The Australian dollar was little changed after the news.

The local currency was trading at $US0.6698 just before the data was released at 1130 AEDT, but fell to $US0.6684 shortly afterwards.

NabCapital senior markets economist David de Garis said the job data displayed that the extremes in the local labour markets were passing.

"We have seen through the month to month figures a marked slow down in employment growth," he said.

"We look like we are passing that tightness."

As employment was a lagging indicator of the economy, Mr de Garis said the jobs market was only seeing a flow through of the economic slowdown from the first half of this year.

"That is the tight monetary policy we had previously."

"We are expecting the economy still to slow."

Mr de Garis said the unemployment rate would rise over the next 12 to 18 months as the economy continues to soften.

"We are forecasting the economic growth rate in 2009 to be in the low twos," he said.

"We are expecting the unemployment rate to

rise, on average, 5.5 percent in 2009, maybe 5.75 percent by the end of 09."

"We expect more attrition (in the labour market)."

Business confidence has taken a battering in recent times due to the slowdown in the global economy, which will effect the jobs rate, he said.

"Businesses are going to be very careful about

putting on staff right now," he said.

"Of course, we have had the downshift in spending."

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