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Saturday, 11 October 2008

Relief in sight: RBA concern over inflation easing

23/07/2008 7:58:00 AM.  | AAP
Borrowers have been given some hope of respite from further interest rate pain amid suggestions the Reserve Bank of Australia is less concerned about inflation.

The June quarter consumer price index (CPI), set to be published later on Wednesday, is expected to show inflation remains on the high side.

The CPI is forecast to come in at 1.3 per cent for the June quarter, lifting the annual rate to 4.3 per cent from 4.2 per cent in the year to March.

But economists say recent comments from the RBA suggest it's less likely to raise rates again, regardless of whether inflation remains above its target band of between two and three per cent.

"Normally, we would expect accelerating inflation to have analysts pencilling in another rate rise. That is unlikely this time," Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist Michael Blythe said.

"Inflation is uncomfortably high but the RBA seems confident that better outcomes lie ahead.

"And the recent lift in commercial banks' lending rates acts as a de facto policy tightening anyway."

There is also some hope that the next move in rates will be down.

RBA governor Glenn Stevens said last week it wasn't necessary for inflation to be back in the two to three per cent target band for the central bank to start cutting rates.

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